Both factors have led to a delay in the ramp-up timeline for HBM4, and it is expected to enter mass production by the end of the first quarter of 2026 at the earliest.
According to the latest survey by TrendForce, NVIDIA adjusted the HBM4 specifications of the Rubin platform in the third quarter of 2025, raising the requirement for Speed per Pin to be higher than 11 Gbps, forcing the three HBM suppliers to revise their designs. Additionally, the AI boom has stimulated the demand for NVIDIA's previous generation Blackwell product to exceed expectations, and the production schedule of the Rubin platform has been adjusted accordingly. Both of these factors have led to a delay in the release time of HBM4, and it is expected to enter mass production by the end of the first quarter of 2026 at the earliest.
TrendForce, a research and consulting firm, stated that SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron have all re-submitted their HBM4 products for testing and are continuously adjusting the designs to meet the stricter specifications set by NVIDIA. Compared to their competitors, Samsung's HBM4 is the first to adopt the 1Cnm process, and in the base die, it also uses the advanced process of its own wafer foundry. In the future, it will be able to support relatively high-speed transmission specifications and is expected to become the first supplier to pass the verification process. Subsequently, it will have an advantage in the supply of high-specification products like Rubin. SK hynix, on the other hand, expects to maintain an absolute advantage in the supply volume in 2026 despite having already reached an HBM contract agreement.
The change in NVIDIA's product strategy is another important factor affecting the progress of HBM4 verification. Due to the significant growth in demand for Blackwell series products driven by AI in the first half of 2026, NVIDIA raised the shipment targets for B300/GB300 in the first half of the year and increased the HBM3e orders. At the same time, it also adjusted the production schedule for the Rubin platform. As a result, the three HBM suppliers have gained additional time to adjust the HBM4 products. Based on the current verification situation, it is expected that the earliest production time for each HBM4 will fall between the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter in 2026.
